[HKUMed] Real-time situation report by the instantaneous effective reproductive number (Rt) of COVID-19

1. Rt has been kept < 1 since late Janauary. Yet, the city is at the highest risk since this began, with the effective Rt > 1 since last week.
2. Rt lags by the sum of the incubation period + symptom onset to diagnosis and reporting
   • Can be compensated in part by digital/AI augmentation eg Octopus/mobile phone location services reflecting social mobility/distancing
3. HKU will be making available an Rt dashboard for real time outbreak monitoring
4. Regarding the preventive measures taken against COVID-19, 1005 people are interviewed and only 85% of them will avoid going to crowded places while only 84% of them will stay at home as much as possible. The results are reduced by 5% compared with the survey conducted in Feb
5. Importance to observe social distancing to protect self and others
   • Businesses may consider shortening hours and restricting access
   • Government may need to step in otherwise
6. HK is now at our HIGHEST RISK for a sustained local outbreak since COVID 19 began, therefore:
   • Improve logistics and people flow for arriving passengers at the airport and for those who seek self quarantine in hotels
   • Protect older adults, especially those in nursing homes and retirement communities
   • Protect and help the foreign domestic helper community, so they can in turn protect their employing families and HK at large

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