The BMJ, 4 May 2020
Ka Hung Chan, Pak-wing Lee, Crystal Ying Chan, Kin Bong Hubert Lam, Pak-leung Ho
- Compartmental modelling studies on COVID-19 should not be relied on as the only approach for monitoring the pandemic or assessing the effectiveness of infection control measures.
- Simple and rapid assessment of influenza-like illness using widely available surveillance data could be a cost effective and complementary approach to compartmental modelling.
- The potential confounding due to changes in behaviours of patients and healthcare providers must be carefully considered.
- The proposed methods will be particularly useful for countries in which testing capacity for COVID-19 and expertise in infectious disease modelling are limited.
- The timely, stringent, and community-wide epidemic response in Hong Kong seemed to effectively control local outbreaks of COVID-19 as well as the underlying transmission of influenza and other respiratory infections.